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As Schools Embrace A.I. Tools, Skeptics Raise Concerns (Natasha Singer)

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A New York Times journalist, Natasha Singer covers technology access and use. This article appeared January 2, 2026.

In early November, Microsoft said it would supply artificial intelligence tools and training to more than 200,000 students and educators in the United Arab Emirates.

Days later, a financial services company in Kazakhstan announced an agreement with OpenAI to provide ChatGPT Edu, a service for schools and universities, for 165,000 educators in Kazakhstan.

Last month, xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, announced an even bigger project with El Salvador: developing an A.I. tutoring system, using the company’s Grok chatbot, for more than a million students in thousands of schools there.

Fueled partly by American tech companies, governments around the globe are racing to deploy generative A.I. systems and training in schools and universities.

Some U.S. tech leaders say A.I. chatbots — which can generate humanlike emails, create class quizzes, analyze data and produce computer code — can be a boon for learning. The tools, they argue, can save teachers time, customize student learning and help prepare young people for an “A.I.-driven” economy.

But the rapid spread of the new A.I. products could also pose risks to young people’s development and well-being, some children’s and health groups warn.

A recent study from Microsoft and Carnegie Mellon University found that popular A.I. chatbots may diminish critical thinking. A.I. bots can produce authoritative-sounding errors and misinformation, and some teachers are grappling with widespread A.I.-assisted student cheating.

Silicon Valley for years has pushed tech tools like laptops and learning apps into classrooms, with promises of improving education access and revolutionizing learning.

Still, a global effort to expand school computer access — a program known as “One Laptop per Child” — did not improve students’ cognitive skills or academic outcomes, according to studies by professors and economists of hundreds of schools in Peru. Now, as some tech boosters make similar education access and fairness arguments for A.I., children’s agencies like UNICEF are urging caution and calling for more guidance for schools.

“With One Laptop per Child, the fallouts included wasted expenditure and poor learning outcomes,” Steven Vosloo, a digital policy specialist at UNICEF, wrote in a recent post. “Unguided use of A.I. systems may actively de-skill students and teachers.”

Education systems across the globe are increasingly working with tech companies on A.I. tools and training programs.

In the United States, where states and school districts typically decide what to teach, some prominent school systems recently introduced popular chatbots for teaching and learning. In Florida alone, Miami-Dade County Public Schools, the nation’s third-largest school system, rolled out Google’s Gemini chatbot for more than 100,000 high school students. And Broward County Public Schools, the nation’s sixth-biggest school district, introduced Microsoft’s Copilot chatbot for thousands of teachers and staff members.

Outside the United States, Microsoft in June announced a partnership with the Ministry of Education in Thailand to provide free online A.I. skills lessons for hundreds of thousands of students. Several months later, Microsoft said it would also provide A.I. training for 150,000 teachers in Thailand. OpenAI has pledged to make ChatGPT available to teachers in government schools across India.

The Baltic nation of Estonia is trying a different approach, with a broad new national A.I. education initiative called “A.I. Leap.”

The program was prompted partly by a recent poll showing that more than 90 percent of the nation’s high schoolers were already using popular chatbots like ChatGPT for schoolwork, leading to worries that some students were beginning to delegate school assignments to A.I.

Estonia then pressed U.S. tech giants to adapt their A.I. to local educational needs and priorities. Researchers at the University of Tartu worked with OpenAI to modify the company’s Estonian-language service for schools so it would respond to students’ queries with questions rather than produce direct answers.

Introduced this school year, the “A.I. Leap” program aims to teach educators and students about the uses, limits, biases and risks of A.I. tools. In its pilot phase, teachers in Estonia received training on OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini chatbots.

“It’s critical A.I. literacy,” said Ivo Visak, the chief executive of the A.I. Leap Foundation, an Estonian nonprofit that is helping to manage the national education program. “It’s having a very clear understanding that these tools can be useful — but at the same time these tools can do a lot of harm.”

Estonia also recently held a national training day for students in some high schools. Some of those students are now using the bots for tasks like generating questions to help them prepare for school tests, Mr. Visak said.

“If these companies would put their effort not only in pushing A.I. products, but also doing the products together with the educational systems of the world, then some of these products could be really useful,” Mr. Visak added.

This school year, Iceland started its own national A.I. pilot in schools. Now several hundred teachers across the country are experimenting with Google’s Gemini chatbot or Anthropic’s Claude for tasks like lesson planning, as they aim to find helpful uses and to pinpoint drawbacks.

Researchers at the University of Iceland will then study how educators used the chatbots.

Students won’t use the chatbots for now, partly out of concern that relying on classroom bots could diminish important elements of teaching and learning.

“If you are using less of your brain power or critical thinking — or whatever makes us more human — it is definitely not what we want,” said Thordis Sigurdardottir, the director of Iceland’s Directorate of Education and School Services.

Tinna Arnardottir and Frida Gylfadottir, two teachers participating in the pilot at a high school outside Reykjavik, say the A.I. tools have helped them create engaging lessons more quickly.

Ms. Arnardottir, a business and entrepreneurship teacher, recently used Claude to make a career exploration game to help her students figure out whether they were more suited to jobs in sales, marketing or management. Ms. Gylfadottir, who teaches English, said she had uploaded some vocabulary lists and then used the chatbot to help create exercises for her students.

“I have fill-in-the-blank word games, matching word games and speed challenge games,” Ms. Gylfadottir said. “So before they take the exam, I feel like they’re better prepared.”

Ms. Gylfadottir added that she was concerned about chatbots producing misinformation, so she vetted the A.I.-created games and lessons for accuracy before asking her students to try them. Ms. Gylfadottir and Ms. Arnardottir said they also worried that some students might already be growing dependent on — or overly trusting of — A.I. tools outside school.

That has made the Icelandic teachers all the more determined, they said, to help students learn to critically assess and use chatbots.

“They are trusting A.I. blindly,” Ms. Arnardottir said. “They are maybe losing motivation to do the hard work of learning, but we have to teach them how to learn with A.I.”

Teachers currently have few rigorous studies to guide generative A.I. use in schools. Researchers are just beginning to follow the long-term effects of A.I. chatbots on teenagers and schoolchildren.

“Lots of institutions are trying A.I.,” said Drew Bent, the education lead at Anthropic. “We’re at a point now where we need to make sure that these things are backed by outcomes and figure out what’s working and what’s not working.”



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Simon Tatham’s Portable Puzzle Collection. “This page contains a collection of small...

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Simon Tatham’s Portable Puzzle Collection. “This page contains a collection of small computer programs which implement one-player puzzle games.”

💬 Join the discussion on kottke.org

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Gomatsu didn’t plan to illustrate 80 cats of Taiwan in one day... but he did

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At a cat supplies fair the feline-loving illustrator took on the mammoth task of drawing nearly 100 cats off-the-cuff.

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Computers that used to be human

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One common complaint about computers is that they’re too hard to understand. Check out this lamentation related to the British East India Company:

The Controller and the Computer of the Duties on unrated India Goods attend the Sales of the East India Company, and take an Account of the Goods sold, and the Price; this Account is agreed with the Company, then the Controller and Computer cast the Duties, and the Receiver enters them upon the Warrant.

The Computation is become so difficult, from the Number of Branches of Duties, and from the various Rules now necessarily made use of in casting them, that very few Persons can be found capable of transacting this Business, or of acquiring the Means of doing it. 

The Examination of Mr. William Richardson; taken upon Oath, the 3d of December 1784
Journals of the House of Commons (1785)

Wait, what? In 1785, no British civil servant was pulling up Excel to do the books on colonialism (citation needed). Even Charles Babbage was still a twinkle in his parents’ eyes.

In the quoted passage, the Computer is a human. You used to be able to be a professional Computer, calculating important sums for your employer. 

And just like computers today, those human Computers could be hard to understand. Imagine being a tax auditor or accountant by hand - no wonder this particular Computer, for taxes, was a very difficult job to hire for.

Computers were real people. They had names. Sometimes being a Computer was a quick gig between others, as this US Naval Observatory report shows:

The following members of the Observatory force have been attached to the computing division at some time during the year ending June 30, 1903:

Computer William M. Brown

Computer John C. Hammond

    Computer Everett I. Yowell, for six months.

  Computer Herbert R. Morgan.

    Computer Eleanor A. Lamson

    Miscellaneous Computer Clara M. Upton, for two months.

    Miscellaneous Computer Arthur B. Turner, for six weeks.

    Miscellaneous Computer Lelia J. Harvie, for six weeks.

    Miscellaneous Computer Etta M. Eaton, for eight months.

    Miscellaneous Computer John R. Benton, for two months.

    Miscellaneous Computer Ella A. Merritt, for seven months.

    Miscellaneous Computer Samuel F. Rixey, for four months.

    Miscellaneous Computer Delonza T. Wilson, for five months.

    Miscellaneous Computer Charles E. Yost, for two weeks. 

[...]

Very respectfully, 
W.S. Eichelberger
Professor of Mathematics, U.S. Navy, in Charge.

Annual Report of the Naval Observatory (1903)

As popularly retold in Hidden Figures, human computers co-existed with electronic computers as late as the 1960s - real people, usually women, would perform calculations by hand and with tools like lookup tables, slide rules, and mechanical calculators. 

Of course, Calculators also used to be people performing similar tasks. From the 1656 Glossographia, one of the earliest English dictionaries:

Calculate (calculo): to cast accounts, to reckon.

Compotist (compotista): a caster of accounts, a Reckoner, or Calculator.

Thomas Blount: Glossographia, or, A dictionary interpreting all such hard words of whatsoever language now used in our refined English tongue with etymologies, definitions and historical observations on the same : also the terms of divinity, law, physick, mathematicks and other arts and sciences explicated via the University of Michigan Library’s Early English Books Online

Besides writing that hilariously-long subtitle, Thomas Blount believes that “reckon” is not a “hard word”, so it’s not included in this dictionary - too obvious, another example of “Everyone can see what a horse is”. In fact, I had a hard time finding any dictionary of this era that defined “reckon”, so here’s several entries from the 1604 A Table Alphabeticall that should help:

[fr] account, reckon 

computation, an account or reckoning 

impute, reckon, or assigne, blame, or to lay to ones charge 

register, kalender, a reckoning booke

Robert Cawdrey: A Table Alphabeticall (1604), website edited by Raymond G. Siemens

At this time, “reckon” had a meaning closer to “compute” or “calculate”, with numerical or financial precision (this is where the phrase “the day of reckoning” comes from). That’s quite distant from its modern meaning of a casual guess or tentative belief.

Now, doing real research takes a lot of time. The rest of this post is dedicated to making up stupid etymology because I think it’s funny:

Ruler as straightedge derives from ruler like the monarchy, since the king is the one who has to draw the line.

Protractor used to be someone who made meetings drag on longer by considering new angles (some say this role still exists today).

Washer-dryers used to be the same person, but it was divided into two distinct roles thanks to increasing specialization and powerful labor unions; never the twain shall meet again.

Liquor is too obscene to define here. I hardly even know her!

And if you believe the hype, Programmer might be next in line for tool-dom, like the Calculators and Computers of yore. Come to think of it, those folks can be hard to understand, too.

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“Food JPEGs” in Super Smash Bros & Kirby Air Riders

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Have you ever noticed that the food graphics in Super Smash Bros. and Kirby Air Riders is flat “billboarded” stock images of food?

This artistic decision from director Masahiro Sakurai has persisted through 8 games over nearly 25 years. I've seen a few folks online remarking about the “JPEG” or “PNG”-like quality of the images in the most recent release: Kirby Air Riders.

While researching every game with this art style and all 150+ unique food images I ended up fixing wikis, reviewing a seasonal KitKat flavor, and preserving an uncatalogued image of tempura soba.


Burgers from Super Smash Bros. Melee (2001), Kirby Air Ride (2003), Super Smash Bros. Brawl (2008), Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2018), and Kirby Air Riders (2025).

Masahiro Sakurai is the director for every game on this list, so clearly this is his artistic decision. Super Smash Bros. Melee was the first game to contain this food art style, published in 2001. This style was then repeated in Kirby Air Ride (2003), Super Smash Bros. Brawl (2008), Super Smash Bros. for 3DS and Wii U (2014), Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2018), and most recently in Kirby Air Riders (2025).

Credit to Nintendo, HAL Laboratories, SORA Ltd., and Bandai Namco Studios as developers and publishers of these games. Artwork was sourced from the Spriters Resource.

Super Smash Bros. Melee (2001)

Where it all began! Super Smash Bros. Melee for the GameCube started off with 28 distinct food items, often found in “Party Balls”. Each type of food had a different “nutritional value” and “yumminess quotient” according to the in-game trophy dedicated to the food items.

Melee included many foods specific to Japanese cuisine, such as unagi (eel), omurice, soba, dango, and gyūdon. I do distinctly remember growing up as a “culinarily sheltered” kid in the midwest United States and not understanding what many of these food items were.

The original stock images of Super Smash Bros. Melee and the next game, Kirby Air Ride, have been partially discovered and documented by a group called “Render96”. The stock images are from a company called “Sozaijiten”. Many of the food images come from Material Dictionary CDs Volume 14 (Vegetables & Fruits), Volume 22 (Food & Dishes), and Volume 73 (Cooking Japanese, Western, & Chinese). The apple stock image in particular was re-used all the way through Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2018). The burger, milk, dango, and donut are still missing their primary source.

Kirby Air Ride (2003)




Kirby Air Ride for the GameCube had significantly fewer distinct food items (12) compared to Melee and maintained many of the same food stock images from Melee, including the apple, burger, chicken, curry, omurice, onigiri, and ramen. Nigiri was included, but the image was changed from a sushi board to a plate.

The stock images had their saturation increased and the black borders around the images are thicker, sometimes 2-3 pixels instead of only 1 pixel for Melee.


I paid $50 plus shipping on eBay for this PNG. This is the closest I'll get to NFTs.

While researching the foods in Kirby Air Ride I discovered a wiki description of a “tempura soba” item that I'd never heard of and wasn't included in the Spriters Resource spritesheets for Kirby Air Ride. Turns out that this item was changed to a “hotdog” in the NSTC-M and PAL releases of Kirby Air Ride.

I was unable to find a non-blurry image of the tempura soba sprite online, so of course I had to preserve this sprite myself. I purchased a Japanese copy of Kirby Air Ride, dumped the ROM using the FlippyDrive Disc Backup Utility, and ran the ROM using Dolphin with “Dump Textures” mode enabled to archive the sprite directly from the game.


Kirby Air Ride cover artwork (left: JP, right: US, PAL). Images from the GameTDB.

In the process I also learned that the cover of Kirby Air Ride changed between the Japanese and international releases. The Japanese cover art features a smiling happy Kirby where the international cover has Kirby with a furrowed brow and serious look.

Super Smash Bros. Brawl (2008)

Super Smash Bros. Brawl for the Wii has only one more food item compared to Melee (29) and introduces 11 new food items including bread, cake, candy, chocolate, cookie, melon soda, parfait, peaches, pie, pineapple, and steak.

About half of the Japanese-specific foods from both Melee and Kirby Air Ride were replaced: curry, omurice, onigiri, and ramen.

The art is less saturated and more “realistic” which is in-line with the rest of the game's art direction. The images lost their black outline, likely to draw less attention to the “arcade-y” feel that the previous titles had with food items.

Super Smash Bros 3DS and Wii U (2014)

Super Smash Bros. Wii U and 3DS have the same total number of food items as Brawl (29). These games change the food art style completely, again! It's brighter, saturated, and looks delicious.

The soda item was changed from a melon cream soda to a dark cola with lemon. The omurice was changed to a pair of fried eggs with bacon. These games are also the only ones without the “burger” food item.

Super Smash Bros. for 3DS uses the same food artwork used in Super Smash Bros. for Wii U downscaled to 64x64 pixels from 256x256 pixels with some minor editing.

Super Smash Bros. Wii U and 3DS added the “Mont Blanc” food item, which is a French dessert that is popular in Japan. I've seen multiple guides and wikis mistakenly label this food item as “noodles” due to the “vermicelli” shape of the puréed chestnuts. Yummy!

While researching and writing this blog post I happened across “Mont Blanc”-flavored KitKats. These are apparently a limited-time flavor for autumn. The KitKats are creamy and have plenty of chestnut flavor, but they are very sweet (apparently Mont Blanc is quite sweet, too, so this is to be expected).


Mont Blanc food item from Super Smash Bros Wii U, 3DS, and Ultimate


“Mont Blanc flavored limited-time KitKats”

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2018)

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate uses the same 29 foods from the Wii U and 3DS and adds 9 more foods for a total of 38. Many of the newly added foods are call-backs to food items in previous titles, below highlighted in pink.

The 9 new foods in Ultimate are burgers, cheese, corndogs, donuts, dumplings, daisies, pizza, pineapple, and steak.

It's clear that the “Sozaijiten” stock images were still in use even in 2018: 17 years later! The apple, cheese, and chicken stock images for Super Smash Bros. Melee match the stock images used in Ultimate.

Kirby Air Riders (2025)

Kirby Air Riders released for the Switch 2 has the most foods of any game with this art style with 45 distinct food items.

Massive thank-you to Charles Bernardo for sending me carefully cropped images of the food in Kirby Air Riders.

Kirby Air Riders is the first game in this series to use completely new models for all food items: not even the apple or cheese are the same from any previous game. Kirby Air Riders is also the first game in this series not to have a “roast chicken” item, breaking from an established video-game food trope.

Kirby Air Riders adds a new food-centric mode called “Gourmet Race” where riders earn points by consuming food as quickly as possible in a small arena. Gourmet Race introduces a new food concept: “Large Foods”. Large food items are worth 15 points instead of 1 point per food item. There are 14 large food items, some presenting as “upgraded” versions of regular-sized foods.

The large food items are: a bunch of 12 bananas instead of 3, a bread-basket, a double cheeseburger, a whole cake instead of a slice, donuts, a fruit basket, a board of nigiri instead of a plate, fruit parfait, pizza, popcorn, salad, rainbow shave ice instead of blue only, a tempura bowl, and a whole watermelon instead of a slice.

Prior to this article there was not yet a complete list of foods in Kirby Air Riders documented on a wiki or spritesheet. I added this list to the Kirby wiki, but I've also included the list below:

List of food items in Kirby Air Riders
  • Apple
  • Bananas
  • Bread Basket
  • Cabbage
  • Cake (Slice)
  • Cake (Whole)
  • Cheese
  • Cheeseburger
  • Cheeseburger (Double)
  • Chocolate
  • Cola
  • Cupcake
  • Donuts
  • Dumpling
  • Omurice
  • French Fries
  • Fried Rice
  • Fruit Basket
  • Gelatin
  • Grapes
  • Hamburg Steak
  • Hotdog
  • Icecream
  • Jelly Beans
  • Melon Cream Soda
  • Nigiri (Plate)
  • Nigiri (Board)
  • Orange
  • Orange Juice
  • Pancakes
  • Parfait
  • Spaghetti
  • Pizza
  • Popcorn
  • Ramen
  • Salad
  • Sambusas
  • Sandwich
  • Shave Ice (Blue)
  • Shave Ice (Rainbow)
  • Prime Rib Steak
  • Tempura Bowl
  • Watermelon (Slice)
  • Watermelon (Whole)

Unique food items

There are 16 total food items that only appear in a single title across the 25-year span of games. Kirby Air Riders and Super Smash Bros. Melee have by far the most unique food items with 8 and 5 respectively.

Game Count Foods
Super Smash Bros. Melee 5 Dango, Gyūdon, Mushroom, Soba, Unagi
Kirby Air Ride 0
Super Smash Bros. Brawl 1 Cookie
Super Smash Bros. Wii U/3DS 0
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 2 Daisy, Corndog
Kirby Air Riders 8 Cabbage, Cupcake, French Fries, Fruit Basket, Gelatin, Jelly Beans, Sambusas, Sandwich

Comparing food across games

Finally, here is a table with every image so you can compare how each changed across different titles:

SSB
Melee
2001
Kirby
Air Ride
2003
SSB
Brawl
2008
SSB
Wii U/3DS
2014
SSB
Ultimate
2018
Kirby Air
Riders
2025
Apple
Bananas
Bread
Burger
Cabbage
Cake
Candy
Cheese
Cherries
Chicken
Chocolate
Cola
Cookie
Corndog
Cupcake
Curry
Daisy
Dango
Donut
Dumplings
Eggs
Fried Rice
Fries
Fruit Basket
Gelatin
Grapes
Gyūdon
Hamburg Steak
Hotdog
Icecream
Jellybeans
Kebab
Kiwi
Lemons
Melon
Melon Soda
Milk
Mont Blanc
Mushroom
Nigiri
Onigiri
Orange
Orange Juice
Pancakes
Parfait
Pasta
Peach
Pear
Pie
Pineapple
Pizza
Popcorn
Ramen
Salad
Sambusas
Sandwich
Shave Ice
Shumai
Soba
Soup
Steak
Strawberry
Tea
Tempura
Unagi
Watermelon


Thanks for keeping RSS alive! ♥

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How your high school affects your chances of UC Admission

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The last post looked at how geographic biases affect who applies to and gets accepted by UCs. This post is going to going to drill in to how the admissions policy has evolved at one specific campus, UC San Diego, which has been in the news because 8.5% of enrolled freshmen needed remedial math classes1.

In 2024, Lynbrook High in San Jose was the highest-achieving non-selective high school in the state. 375 seniors (86% of the total) were proficient in both Math and English but only 37 were admitted to UC San Diego. On the other hand, Crawford High, in San Diego, had 38 students admitted even though only 23 (8.6% of the 266 seniors) were proficient in both Math and English. There are literally hundreds of students from Lynbrook who were rejected by UC San Diego despite being stronger than most of those accepted from Crawford.

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In the popular imagination, we expect students from high achieving schools to be more successful in college admissions. This is no longer true, at least at UC San Diego. The relationship between the academic strength of the students at a school, as measured by the percentage who are proficient in both English and Math, and the chance that those students get admitted to UCSD is extremely low.

As the chart shows, UCSD seems to favor some schools at the expense of others with similar achievement levels. The dot in the top right is CAMS (the California Academy of Maths and Sciences). It’s a selective school where over 90% of seniors met or exceeded the standards in both English and Math and nearly 40% of seniors were admitted to UC San Diego. But Gretchen Whitney and Oxford Academy are also selective schools where over 90% of students were proficient in both English and Math and UCSD admitted fewer than 20% of them. Meanwhile, students from Berkeley High have much greater success than students at most other Bay Area schools despite not being better than them in any measurable way.

Preuss, Gompers, and Crawford are all in the San Diego area (Preuss is on the UCSD campus itself) and all had far more seniors admitted than would be expected based on their academic proficiency. One reason is that far more of their students actually applied than would be expected2. You can’t win a lottery unless you buy a ticket and the kids at these schools bought more tickets to the UCSD admissions lottery.

Competing With Your Classmates

Naturally, schools with lots of strong students produce lots of college applicants. If students were being evaluated primarily on the basis of their individual accomplishments or essays, an applicant’s chances of admission would not be affected by the strength of his or her classmates. Unfortunately, if you are at a school where lots of your classmates are applying to UCSD, your chances of admission are greatly hurt.

Over the three years from 2022 to 2024, UCSD admitted about 26% of all public school applicants. That hides a huge variation. Schools that produce fewer than 25 applicants per year have an average admission rate over 40%. At the 63 schools that produce more than 200 applicants per year, the admission rate was only 18%. Students from those schools are effectively competing with their classmates for a limited number of spots. UCSD just does not want more of them, however good they may be. It may or may not be a coincidence that Asian students are the largest group of applicants at 55 of the 63 schools that produce more than 200 applicants annually.

Incidentally, San Francisco public schools had a combined admission rate of just under 20%, well below the state average. Mission had the highest rate (26.5%) and Balboa the lowest (15.4%). It may or may not be a coincidence that 90% (the most of any SF school) of the applicants from Balboa were Asian whereas only 25% (the fewest of any SF school) of the applicants from Mission were Asian.

Admissions Standards for Private Schools

The limited data we have on the comparative strength of public and private school applicants suggests that private school applicants are likely to be objectively stronger3. Nevertheless, the average private school applicant had only a 18.3% chance of admission, well below the 25.8% average for public school applicants. That seven percentage point difference translates into a 40% greater chance of admission for public school applicants. Whereas nearly 50% (440 out of 906) of public schools had admission rates over 30%, only 2% of private schools did (3 out of 142)4.

Among San Francisco private schools, the highest admission rate (28%) belonged to Immaculate Conception Academy, almost certainly the least celebrated and least selective of all the private high schools in the city. Archbishop Riordan had a higher admission rate than its near neighbor, Lick-Wilmerding, or its more selective peers, St Ignatius and Sacred Heart.

The lowest admission rate of all belongs to one of the most celebrated private schools in San Jose. Bellarmine College Prep has seen only 7.9% of its applicants accepted by UCSD over the last three years. In 2022, only 6 of the 167 applicants were successful, although that rose to 13 and 19 over the next two years, for a total of 38 over the three years. Over the same period, 39 Bellarmine students were named National Merit Scholar semifinalists, an achievement that requires scoring in the top 1% of students statewide on the PSAT. For Bellarmine students, it’s harder to be get into UC San Diego than to be in the top 1% in the state.

This phenomenon, of more students in the top 1% than are admitted to UC San Diego, is not confined to Bellarmine. It’s true of a number of other private schools I looked at, such as Harvard-Westlake in LA, College Prep in Oakland, Nueva in San Mateo etc. The aforementioned Lynbrook High in San Jose was the only public school I could find with the same sorry distinction.

It makes no sense to think of UCSD evaluating applicants against all the other applicants in the applicant pool. It is clear that different standards are being applied depending on the school that the applicant attended. It makes more sense to think of applicants as competing with their classmates.

What Really Matters In Admission

The principle behind California’s Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) is that extra money should be given to schools with lots of high-needs students (defined as those eligible for free or reduced price meals, English learners and those in foster care). The Unduplicated5 Pupil Percentage (UPP) measures the share of a school’s total enrollment that falls into one of those three high-needs categories.

For the sake of perspective, most public high schools in San Francisco have UPPs in the 50%-75% range. SOTA is the only one under 25% while both Lowell and Gateway are under 50%. The only schools above 75% are KIPP and International (which is filled with new arrivals who are still English Learners). Yes, even Mission, O’Connell, and Jordan have UPPs under 75%.

Schools with a UPP of 75% or higher are known as LCFF+ Schools. The California legislature has, since 2017, required that UCs report annually on the number of students from LCFF+ schools who apply to, are admitted to, and enroll at each UC campus. Though not required by law to do so, UC San Diego has decided to give students from such schools a big boost in admissions.

This chart shows the average admission rate by UPP over the period 2022-24. There is a very clear discontinuity. Most of the schools with UPPs above 75% have admission rates above 40% while most of the schools with UPPs below 75% have admission rates well below the UCSD average.

I experimented with a little regression analysis to see what factors might predict a school’s admission rate. As you might expect from the graph above, whether or not a school is a LCFF+ school6 is by far the most important factor. The school’s academic quality, as measured by the share of seniors who were proficient in both Math and English, was also significant but, here’s the kicker, the co-efficient was negative. In other words, given two schools that are both LCFF+, the one with the lower proficiency levels will have the higher admission rate7.

A couple of other points:

  • The preference applies at the school level, not at the applicant level. The non high-needs students in the LCFF+ schools will be the biggest beneficiaries because they are likely to be stronger students than their high-needs classmates. Conversely, about 40% of high-needs students are in non-LCFF+ schools and they are much less likely to gain admission because they will appear weaker than their classmates, even if they are stronger than high-needs students in LCFF+ schools.

  • The fraction of high school students that fall into one or more of the high-needs categories statewide was in the 57%-59% range every year between 2016-17 and 2020-21. It has since risen steadily and reached 65% in 2024-258. As recently as 2021, 35% of high schoolers were in LCFF+ schools. In 2025, it was 45%.

What Has Changed?

It wasn’t always this way. As recently as 2016, a school’s UPP did not affect its average admission rate9.

The number of applications that UC San Diego receives annually from California high school students rose by a huge 57% between 2016 and 2024. All the other UCs also experienced their own jumps in applications. The number of applications had been rising before the pandemic but the elimination of the SAT gave it another boost. Early last year, we looked at how the strength of the applicants had changed over time and found that, while applicants are taking more and more honors classes, the biggest increase in applications came from weak students i.e. those who had taken fewer than five honors classes. That does not mean UCSD is getting disproportionately more applications from LCFF+ high schools. The mix of applications by high school has been surprisingly stable. The share of applications coming from LCFF+ high schools has consistently been in the 17%-19% range and the share coming from high schools with UPPs under 25% has consistently been in the 23%-25% range. The UCs received money from the legislature to grow the number of applications from LCFF+ high schools. That their share of applications hasn’t increased demonstrates that the money was not well spent.

However, the different admission standards that are being applied today has had a significant effect on the composition of the admitted class. Students from LCFF+ high schools used to comprise around 20% of the admitted class. They now comprise over 30%. Meanwhile, the share of admits coming from schools with UPPs below 25% fell by one third, from 24% to 16%.

Winners and Losers

Such a dramatic change in the admissions policy has obviously produced winners and losers. Given the increase in the total number of admits, an increase in the number of admits from LCFF+ schools could have been accomplished without reducing the number of admits from any high school. Nevertheless, hundreds of schools did see a decrease in the number of students admitted to UCSD.

Over the period 2016-18, Lowell High in San Francisco had an average of 115 students admitted to UC San Diego, more than any other high school10. In 2022-24, it had an average of 94 admits per year, a decline of 21 (18%). It was far from the worst affected. Torrey Pines High in San Diego went from an average of 100 admits to an average of just 42, a decline of 58. Monta Vista High in Cupertino went from 104 admits per year down to 48, a decline of 56. Four other high schools also saw their average number of admits decline by 50 or more.

Some schools with lots of high needs students also saw their number of admits decline. Highlighted on the chart are San Gabriel High and Gabrielino High, both of which saw their admits halve from around 50 to around 25 per year. It may or may not be a coincidence that at least 85% of UCSD applicants from both schools were Asian. Evidence that it may be a coincidence is that Bolsa Grande High, another high needs school where 85%+ of the applicants are Asian, saw a big increase in its number of admits.

On the flip side, four schools saw their number of admits increase by at least 50. Granada Hills Charter is now the largest source of admits to UC San Diego, averaging 151 in 2022-24, up from 94 in 2016-18. There were actually a massive 196 admits from Granada Hills in 2024 alone: the average is 151 only because it includes the 74 admits in 2022. Similarly, Eleanor Roosevelt High’s average of 105 is a combination of the 39 admits it had in 2022 and the 147 it had in 2024. Berkeley High saw the biggest increase in absolute terms, up from 50 admits per year to 125. Meanwhile, Birmingham Community Charter went from 18.3 to 71.7, an increase of 291%.

These four schools are all enormous. Berkeley High is the smallest and it has around 800 seniors. Granada Hills has over 1100 seniors. While they are all good schools with lots of strong students, it is unclear why they are so favored by UCSD admissions. Only Birmingham Community Charter is an LCFF+ school. In 2024, sixty-eight high schools produced more graduates who were proficient in both English and Math than Berkeley High. Eleanor Roosevelt’s big increase may have been helped by a conveniently large increase in its UPP. It was between 35% and 40% every year up to 2021 but jumped to 59%, 67%, and 67% in the next three years.

Where do all the students needing remedial help come from?

The big increase in the number of students admitted from LCFF+ high schools coincides exactly with the big increase in students needing remedial help. It is natural, but wrong, to conclude that the former was sufficient to cause the latter.

There are plenty of smart students at LCFF+ high schools. There are more students at those schools who are proficient in both Math and English than apply to UCSD. UCSD accepts about 40% of LCFF+ applicants so, even though every proficient student doesn’t apply, the number of proficient applicants from LCFF+ high schools probably exceeds the number of students admitted from those schools. It should thus be possible to keep the same number of admits but have zero who need remedial classes because all the admits are proficient in both Math and English. That’s not what happens in practice, however, because the UCSD admissions office has no way to know who those proficient students are. Rampant grade inflation means that high school transcripts and GPAs are unable to distinguish strong students from weak. Meanwhile, the UCs have blinded themselves by ignoring SAT scores and paying scant attention to AP exam scores. If you’re picking blindly from all the applicants from Lynbrook High, you’ll probably pick a very strong student because Lynbrook is filled with very strong students. If you’re picking blindly from all the applicants from Crawford High, you may get a competent student but you’re more likely to get someone needing remedial help.

Conclusion

The opaqueness of the whole process is what I find most objectionable. UC San Diego has dramatically changed its process for how it evaluates applicants but there is no public record of it announcing this dramatic change or describing what its new evaluation rubric is or how it has changed. Students and their families are supposed to trust in the integrity of the holistic review process even though it produces results that appear unjustified using publicly available data.

The UCs receive nearly $5 billion in state funding and receive applications from over 100,000 high school seniors every year. Other government-run programs have clear eligibility rules. We deserve a proper accounting of how each UC makes its admissions decisions.

1

There are also practical reasons to pick UCSD as the focus. I want to analyze the changing admission rates by high school. UC only publishes admissions data for high schools that have at least three students admitted to a campus. Many more schools have three or more students admitted to UCSD than to the more selective UCLA or UC Berkeley. On the other hand, UC San Diego is selective enough that it (unlike Riverside and Merced) gets applications from many of the strongest students from each high school. Its admissions results therefore reflect the choices of the admissions office rather than the lottery of who applies.

2

The prediction was based on a linear model with two independent variables, both of which were statistically significant: the percentage of seniors who were proficient in both Math and English; and the school’s Unduplicated Pupil Percentage (see later). I ranked all the high schools by how much the actual number of applications exceeded the predicted number. Of the 1,154 high schools in the dataset, Preuss, Gompers, and Crawford ranked 1, 2, and 30 respectively.

3

In 2019, the last year for which we have this data, private school students passed (i.e. scored 3 or higher) 72% of the AP exams they took while public school students passed 59% of their AP exams.

4

Curiously, two of the three with admission rates over 30% were Armenian schools and they were the only two Armenian schools in the data. You’d get some odds on that occurring by random chance.

5

“Unduplicated” means students are counted only once even if they fall into more than one category, for example, by being an English learner eligible for free meals.

6

I’m no statistics expert but I’m pretty sure it would be a mistake to use the raw UPP in a linear regression model because the discontinuity proves the relationship is non-linear.

7

The geographic location of the high school was also statistically significant at the 95% level and in the expected direction (i.e. positive for schools on the South Coast; negative for schools in the Bay Area) but it improved the R-squared by a tiny fraction (from 0.635 to 0.638). I had a theory that maybe schools that had few applicants would be favored over schools that produced lots of applicants but this turned out not to be significant.

8

Why it has increased so rapidly is an interesting question. I have trouble believing that it is a natural increase. The economy has been doing okay. There has not been an increase in the number of English learners. And yet the share of high needs students in Napa County has apparently risen from 44% in 2019-20 to 65% in 2024-25. I have heard that the introduction of universal school meals might have mucked up the data quality but, if that is true, I don’t know what the mechanism is. If anyone can explain, I would love to be enlightened.

9

An equal admission rate does not imply that applicants from all schools were treated the same back then. The average applicant from a low UPP school or a private school was probably stronger than the average applicant from a high UPP school so an equal admission rate probably reflects a boost for applicants from high UPP schools. But the boost, if it existed, was much smaller than the one in place today.

10

Other schools have higher average scores but, in many years, Lowell has the most students who are proficient in both Math and English on the SBAC and the most students who pass two or more AP exams.



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mrmarchant
2 days ago
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